On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a startling announcement before the Canadian Parliament: Canadian intelligence services collected “credible intelligence” indicating that Indian agents were involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia in June. In a strong statement from the usually mild-mannered prime minister, Mr. Trudeau noted that “any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.” In a tit-for-that reaction, Canada expelled the head of India’s intelligence agency in Canada, leading India to kick out a senior Canadian diplomat the next day. Mr. Trudeau’s accusation pushed already chilly relations to a new low, and put the United States in the precarious position of trying to maintain ties with two major allies at loggerheads.
The history of Sikh separatism dates back to India’s independence from British occupation in 1947. As British colonial rule came to an end, religious divisions prompted the creation of two countries: one for the Muslim population – which became Pakistan – and India for the Hindu population. At this time, however, the Sikhs – who are still in the majority in the Indian state of Punjab – wanted to establish a separate state for Sikhs called Khalistan. This, however, did not happen, but the aspiration to create Khalistan lingered for decades among the Sikh insurgencies. This culminated in a period of violence in the 1980s, as Sikh separatists grew bolder. At that time, however, the violence became so bad that many Sikhs began to migrate from India, settling in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and, of course, Canada. Canada now has the largest Sikh population outside of India.
The current diplomatic row demonstrates how ties between Canada and India have hit a low point and, as the Economist points out, Sikh separatism “has long been a sore point between India and Canada.” Almost immediately, New Delhi denied Mr. Trudeau’s accusations, calling them “absurd” and “politically motivated.” Ottawa’s accusation may not be a far cry from reality, though. While it may be nearly impossible to prove India was behind the assassination, masked gunman gunned down Mr. Nijjar, a prominent member of the Sikh community in British Columbia, in June. In 2020, Indian security agencies designated Mr. Nijjar as a terrorist as the Indian government accused him of supporting Sikh attacks in the Punjab state of India. And, as there is a large Sikh diaspora in Canada, India has long accused Canada of harboring “Khalistani terrorists and separatists.”
The row between one of its closest allies and an increasingly important partner certain puts the United States in an awkward spot. Canada is a NATO ally, a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, a member of the Group of 7, and America’s friendly neighbor to the North. As a result, one would expect that the United States and other Western allies’ responses to Canada’s claim to be supportive. In fact, Mr. Trudeau has asked its closest allies to publicly condemn the killing, and he even raised the issue with senior officials from the Five Eyes alliance in the weeks before the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi. Yet, the response from Canada’s closest allies has been muted.
In particular, Mr. Trudeau raised the allegations to U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in hopes that two of Canada’s closest allies would show support. The White House National Security Council (NSC) noted that Washington was “deeply concerned” about the allegations, but offered little else in the way of backing up its ally. Instead, the NSC spokesperson simply noted that it was critical that “Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice.” The United Kingdom followed suit. The British Foreign Secretary posted on X that the United Kingdom had been “in regular contact” with its Canadian counterparts about the allegations. “Important that Canada’s investigation runs its course and the perpetrators brought to justice.” Mr. Sunak’s spokesman was cautious in his response as well, noting that the British Prime Minister would not comment on an ongoing investigation. Again, a pretty lackluster response from a key ally.
So, why is India so important? The United States and its Western allies – including the United Kingdom, France, Germany – are working to court India as a counterweight to China as the West turns its foreign policy focus toward the Indo-Pacific. Even Canada has tried to deepen its ties with India, identifying India as a critical partner in Canda’s Indo-Pacific strategy released in 2022. However, it does not seem that Mr. Trudeau’s announcement is enough to halt Western powers from pursuing better ties with India. In an attempt to improve relations with India, Mr. Biden and other Western allies have ignored human rights concerns among minority groups in India and Mr. Modi’s proclivity for Hindu nationalism at the expense of the rest of India’s population.
This diplomatic imbroglio represents the complexities of geopolitics. As the rift between Canada and India widens, President Biden’s diplomacy will be tested. Both India’s aspiration to be a global force and the U.S.’s strategy to counterbalance China in the global arena are at stake. However, perhaps the loser in all of this will be America’s key ally, Canada.